Palestinian Parties Gain Seats, Forcing Israel Coalition Rethink

Election Status and Reports

• Live Updates: Coverage of the ongoing Israeli election cycle.
• Analysis: Coalition negotiations appear inevitable as exit polls show Netanyahu and Eisenkot blocs deadlocked.
• Summary: Key facts regarding the current parliamentary election landscape.

The significant electoral gains achieved by Palestinian parties have created a critical juncture for Israel’s political future. Mainstream opposition forces face a binary choice: engage in direct cooperation with Arab-Israeli political factions or concede a clear path for Benjamin Netanyahu to retain his grip on power. Arab Israelis will not so easily be sidelined and ignored. If he does bounce back, he would owe his resurrection to his avowed political enemies for dropping him a lifeline rather than make historic compromises across Israel’s deep racial divide, but this time.

Following Tuesday’s exit polling, opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot framed the results as a success for the nation’s Zionist majority. However, the emerging reality is far more intricate. The most substantial shift in the new Knesset is the surge of Palestinian party representation, now projected to climb from 10 to between 17 and 18 seats. This development fundamentally alters Israel’s political terrain, ensuring that Arab-Israeli interests can no longer be peripheral.

Current projections place the opposition bloc led by Eisenkot and the coalition headed by Netanyahu in a tight deadlock.

Even if the Likud party remains the single largest force in the 120-seat legislature, neither side currently possesses the 61-seat threshold required for a stable majority. Should these projections hold, President Isaac Herzog will likely be tasked with determining the sequence of attempts to form a government, a process that could span several weeks while Netanyahu remains in a caretaker capacity. Neither side has enough to get 61 seats in the 120-seat parliament for a majority, though the prime minister’s Likud party could still be the strongest single party. That would give Israel’s president, Isaac Herzog, discretion over who he asks first to try to form a government, if confirmed by actual results. The challenge is passed on to the next option, if one candidate cannot succeed in six weeks. And all this time Netanyahu’s coalition would stay on in a caretaker role, it could be an extremely long process. And staged a comeback each time with the aid of his unparalleled tactical skills as a dealmaker, netanyahu has looked beaten before over his three decades at or near the top.

To secure a majority, Eisenkot would need to navigate a coalition involving the Joint List and Ra’am. Mansour Abbas, leader of Ra’am, has signaled a willingness to compromise, having previously served in a right-leaning government under Naftali Bennett. Abbas has explicitly prioritized the effort to unseat Benjamin Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, and Itamar Ben-Gvir. Nevertheless, with Ra’am projected at seven seats, its inclusion alone may not be sufficient for a governing majority. They would probably find Ra’am and its leader, Mansour Abbas, easier to talk to.

Dialogue with the Joint List, which holds at least 11 projected seats, presents greater friction. Eisenkot has demanded that potential partners recognize Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, adhere to the declaration of independence, support conscription for Palestinian Israeli citizens, and formally denounce Hamas. Amjad Shbita, general secretary of the socialist Hadash faction, rejected these terms, stating that negotiations must be conducted as equals rather than through ultimatums. “Laying down conditions won’t work with the Joint List,” Shbita said. “We will negotiate as equals because we need each other.”.

Absent a formal agreement, Eisenkot might attempt to lead a minority government through ad-hoc voting pacts. It is possible that Eisenkot could try to govern as a minority government, with informal vote-by-vote agreements that would keep the new coalition afloat, in the absence of an agreement with one or both of the Palestinian groupings.

Such a fragile arrangement would likely precipitate another election, potentially validating Netanyahu’s campaign messaging—which centered on the choice between the Right and Palestinian representation—and allowing him another chance to employ his established talent for political survival. That would provide Netanyahu the opportunity to rally support among conservative Israeli Jews and claim to have been vindicated in his campaign slogan, “the Right or Palestine”, which rhymes in Hebrew. No one is yet ruling out another breathtaking political escape.

At a victory rally in Nazareth, officials from the Joint List underscored the tension, noting that the Zionist opposition faces a clear choice between asserting supremacy or committing to building a democratic system.